E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – 2875.50 is the Pivot Level to Watch into the Close

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are mounting a strong comeback late in Thursday’s session after President Trump said the China trade deal is still possible. Sellers hit the market hard earlier in the session in response to Trump saying China “broke the deal” on Wednesday evening. Earlier today, Trump helped trigger a strong rebound rally when he said it’s possible to get a trade deal with China this week.

At 18:39 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2873.50, down 13.75 or -0.48%. This is up from a low of 2836.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through today’s intraday low at 2836.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This could trigger a further break into the next main bottom at 2789.50.

The nearest minor top is 2949.50. The closest main top is 2961.25. The market isn’t likely to rally through these levels to change the minor and main trends to up. However, it is in a position to turn higher for the session. This could lead to the formation of a closing price reversal bottom.

The long-term retracement zone at 2843.75 to 2816.00 provided support earlier today when the selling stopped at 2836.25.

The next main range is 2789.50 to 2961.25. The market is currently trying to form support inside its retracement zone at 2875.50 to 2855.00.

Combining the two retracement zones creates a potential support zone at 2855.00 to 2843.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the late session price action, the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 2875.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2875.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. The next target is yesterday’s close at 2884.50. Overtaking this level will turn the market higher for the session. This could trigger a surge into another 50% level at 2898.75. This is followed by the Fibonacci level at 2913.50. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Turning higher for the session will indicate the buying is greater than the selling at current price levels. This could form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom at the close.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2875.50 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the Fibonacci level at 2855.00, followed by the 50% level at 2843.75.

If 2843.75 fails as support then look for a retest of the intraday low at 2836.25.