E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – August 3, 2018 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading mixed shortly after the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and shortly before the cash market opening. The headline number missed the estimate, but the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings came in as expected. Traders are now shifting their focus to the on-going trade dispute between the U.S. and China.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. It turned down on Thursday when sellers took out the previous main bottoms at 2798.25 and 2792.50. However, yesterday’s reversal bottom and today’s subsequent confirmation may be signaling a shift in momentum to up.

The minor trend is up. It turned up on a trade through 2827.75. This also shifted momentum to the upside.

We have the main trend down and the minor trend up. This means we should watch the price action at the short-term retracement zone for direction today. The short-term 50% level is 2820.25 and the short-term Fibonacci level is 2827.25.

The main range is 2693.25 to 2849.50. If sellers can take out yesterday’s low at 2791.00 then look for a break into its retracement zone at 2771.25 to 2755.25. Aggressive counter-trend buyers are likely to come in on a test of this zone because this area represent value.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 2827.25 to 2820.25.

A sustained move over 2827.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for an acceleration to the upside over today’s intraday high at 2836.00. The next target comes in at 2849.50.

A sustained move under 2820.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a steep break with the next target yesterday’s low at 2791.00. If this price fails then look for a possible test of 2771.25 to 2755.25.

Basically, look for the upside momentum to continue on a sustained move over 2827.25 and for the downside momentum to resume on a sustained move under 2820.25.