E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Closing Price Reversal Top, or Break Under 2889.00 Will Be First Signs of Weakness

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures closed at a record high last week. The market has now recovered all of its loss and then some from the last January/early February sell-off. It’s also up nine weeks since its last swing bottom the week-ending June 29. Since there is no resistance, price is not as important as pattern at this time.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed last week when buyers took out the previous record high at 2889.00.

The main swing bottom is 2693.25. A trade through this level will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. The minor trend will change down when sellers take out 2803.00. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The week begins with the index in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This will be the best indication that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.

A break back under the previous top at 2889.00 will be another sign of selling pressure, just not as dramatic as a closing price reversal top.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at 2907.00, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the previous record high at 2889.00.

A sustained move over 2889.00 will indicate that investors are still willing to buy strength. There is no resistance.

A sustained move under 2889.00 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a possible break into the nearest uptrending Gann angle at 2853.25. This angle, moving up at a rate of 16 points per week since the week-ending June 29, has been guiding the index higher for nine weeks.

Look for a technical bounce on the first test of 2853.25. However, if this Gann angle fails as support then we could see an acceleration to the downside with 2803.00 the next downside target. This is followed by the next minor bottom at 2791.00.

If 2791.00 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into a pair of uptrending Gann angles at 2778.75 and 2773.25.