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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Could Strengthen Over 3104.25, Weaken Under 3097.75

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Nov 21, 2019, 14:47 UTC

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3104.25, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% levels at 3104.25 and 3097.75.

E-mini S&P 500 Index

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly lower shortly after the cash market opening after clawing back most of its earlier losses. The benchmark index traded lower earlier in the session because the geniuses at Reuters and Bloomberg decided to run negative stories on U.S.-China trade negotiations based on the dreaded “unnamed source” and “someone close” to the situation.

The market started its rebound during the pre-market session when Gao Feng, China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman (and a named source) said, “China is willing, on the basis of equal and mutual respect with the U.S., to work together to properly settle areas of common concern and strive for a phase-one trade agreement.” Gao also said “external rumors” about the trade talks are not accurate, and noted the two-trade delegations remain in close communication.

At 14:31 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3104.25, down 4.75 or -0.14%.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on November 19 at 3132.50.

A trade through 3132.50 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 3020.25 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 3075.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

The index is currently straddling a pair of 50% levels at 3104.25 and 3097.75.

The main range is 3020.25 to 3132.50. Its retracement zone at 3076.25 to 3063.00 is the next downside target and potential support area.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3104.25, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% levels at 3104.25 and 3097.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3104.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into an uptrending Gann angle at 3121.75

Overtaking 3121.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with next target angle coming in at 3135.00. This is followed by the minor top at 3132.50 and another uptrending Gann angle at 3140.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3097.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the uptrending Gann angle at 3080.25. Look for buyers on the first test.

If 3080.25 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term support zone at 3076.25 to 3063.00. Once again, look for buyers to step in on the move.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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