E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Could Strengthen Over 3240.00, Weaken Under 3225.75

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Tuesday’s close at 3225.75.
James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures hit a new record high on Thursday on light post-holiday volume. The fresh gains are being attributed to a report indicating a strong holiday shopping season. In other news, U.S. weekly jobless claims decreased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 222,000 for the week-ended December 21, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The number was slightly higher than estimates of 220,000, according to economists polled by Dow Jones.

At 15:33 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3234.75, up 9.00 or +0.28%.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed when buyers took out Monday’s high at 3234.25. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 3071.00.

We’re not likely to see a change in trend today, but we could see a closing price reversal top because of the prolonged move up. This chart pattern won’t change the trend, but it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 3222.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The first minor range is 3192.00 to 3235.99. Its 50% level comes in at 3213.75.

The second minor range is 3118.25 to 3235.00. Its retracement zone at 3176.25 to 3162.50 is another potential downside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Tuesday’s close at 3225.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3225.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is an uptrending Gann angle at 3240.00. Overcoming this angle will put the index in a bullish position.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3225.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This will put the index in a position to form a closing price reversal top.

The first downside target is the minor bottom at 3222.50. Taking out this level will change the minor trend to down. This could lead to a test of the pivot at 3213.25.

Look for buyers on the first test of 3213.25. If it fails then the selling is likely to extend into a pair of uptrending Gann angles at 3206.25, followed by 3199.00.

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