E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – December 14, 2016 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading flat ahead of the Fed announcement today at 1900 GMT. Look for volatility after the release of the interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will also hold a news conference and the central bank will make interest rate target projections for 2017. This could be a market moving event.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The market is in no danger of turning the main trend to down, but we are in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The short-term range is 2174.25 to 2273.00. Its 50% level or pivot at 2223.50 is the primary downside target. This price is essentially controlling the short-term direction of the market.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 2266.75, the direction of the E-mini S&P 500 Index futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending angle at 2386.25.

The uptrending angle at 2386.25 is pulling away from the index at rate of 16 points per day so we’re going to need a spectacular rally today to catch up to it.

A trade through 2273.00 will indicate the buying is still strong, but overcoming 2386.25 will mean the market is extremely bullish.

The daily chart is open to the downside with the first target angle coming in at 2230.25. This is followed by a short-term 50% level at 2223.50. If this price fails then look for the selling to extend into 2215.00.

There’s no particular area to watch today for a breakout. The chart pattern suggests the market could move sharply in either direction. Look for volatility with the release of the Fed data starting at 1900 GMT.

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