E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – December 20, 2018 Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 2504.50. Due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the index is also in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This chart pattern won’t change the trend to up, but it could fuel the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.
James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index
E-mini S&P 500 Index

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open nearly flat based on the pre-market trade. The market is recovering from earlier weakness that drove the index into a new low for the year. The price action has put the index in a position to post a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom on the daily chart.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through today’s intraday low at 2476.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend with the next target the August 25, 2017 main bottom at 2434.50.

Due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the index is also in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This chart pattern won’t change the trend to up, but it could fuel the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

The short-term range is 2690.25 to 2476.25. Its retracement zone at 2583.50 to 2609.00 is the first upside target.

The main range is 2819.00 to 2476.25. Its retracement zone at 2647.75 to 2688.00 is the next upside target. The upper level of this range forms a potential resistance cluster with the main top at 2690.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 2504.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2504.50 will indicate the presence of counter-trend buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum, we could see an acceleration into the short-term 50% level at 2583.50.

A close over 2504.50 will form a closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed on Friday, we could see the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2504.50 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out 2476.25 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could generate the downside momentum needed to challenge 2434.50.

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