E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Decision Time on Test of 3387.25 – 3431.75

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are ticking slightly higher on Monday evening ahead of the first presidential debate Tuesday evening. The quiet move in the futures market follows a solid start to the week during Monday’s session, with the index rising 1.76%.

Ahead of the opening and the debate on Tuesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Monday night that the Democrats were unveiling a new $2.2 trillion stimulus package, smaller than $3 trillion proposed earlier in the crisis but still well above what Republican leaders have offered.

At 03:27 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3353.25, up 7.25 or +0.22%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Momentum has been trending higher, however, since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on September 24 and its subsequent confirmation.

A trade through 3419.50 will change the main trend to up. A move through 3198.00 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 2916.50 to 3576.25. Its retracement zone at 3246.25 to 3168.50 is support. This zone stopped the selling at 3198.00 last week.

The minor range is 3419.50 to 3198.00. The index is currently trading on the strong side of its 50% level at 3308.75. This level is support.

The short-term range is 3576.25 to 3198.00. Its retracement zone at 3387.25 to 3431.75 is the next upside target. Inside this zone is the main top at 3419.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests Tuesday will be a risk-on session.

Look for the early upside bias to continue as long as 3308.75 holds as support.

The first target is the 50% level at 3387.25. Since the trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on the first test of this level. Overcoming the 50% level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to tests of 3419.50 and 3431.75. Once again, look for sellers to come in. They will be trying to produce a secondary lower top.

The trigger point for an acceleration to the upside is the Fibonacci level at 3431.75.