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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Early Gap Still Intact but Buying Has Slowed

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Jul 1, 2019, 03:37 UTC

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s close at 2944.25.

E-mini S&P 500 Index

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures gapped to a new all-time high shortly after the opening. The price action was fueled by the hope of a trade deal between the United States and China after U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to resume trade negotiations after a weekend meeting at the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan.

At 03:20 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2968.75, up 24.50 or +0.84%.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily Sept E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed early Monday when buyers took out the last swing top at 2969.25. A trade through 2914.50 will change the main trend to down.

The new short-term range is 2914.50 to 2977.50. If the rally stalls and sellers retake control then look for a potential pullback into its retracement zone at 2946.00 to 2938.50. Additional support is an intermediate retracement zone at 2924.50 to 2912.00.

The new main range is 2732.25 to 2977.50. If the main trend changes to down then look for a potential acceleration to the downside with the next target zone coming in at 2854.75 to 2826.00.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s close at 2944.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2944.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move continues to generate upside momentum then look for a breakout over today’s intraday high at 2977.50. There is no resistance over this level. A closing price reversal top will be the best sign of sellers.

Bearish Scenario

Filling the gap and turning lower under 2944.25 will signal the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the short-term 50% level at 2946.00 and the short-term Fibonacci level at 2938.50 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger a further break into the next retracement zone at 2924.50 to 2912.00. Inside this zone is the main bottom at 2914.50.

Taking out 2914.50 will change the main trend to down. Crossing to the weak side of 2912.00 could trigger an acceleration to the downside.

Overview

Traders are going to be watching early in the session to see if the gap will be filled. Furthermore, the gap was caused by Asian buying. U.S. investors may not want to buy a gap opening so try not to be too aggressive on the long side after the cash market opening.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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