E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Holding 3222.25 Support Ahead of Trump Speech

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly after the cash market opening and a little before President Trump addresses the nation at 16:00 GMT. The topic of the speech is expected to be the U.S. response to Iran’s rocket attack late Tuesday on an Iraqi airbase that hosts American troops.

At 16:30 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3242.75, up 7.50 or +0.23%

Also giving the market a boost is a better-than-expected ADP and Moody’s Analytics report showing U.S. private payrolls soared by 202,000 last month. Traders were looking for an increase of 150,000.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session when sellers took out 3206.75 and 3192.00. However, the price action suggests momentum may have shifted to the upside.

A trade through 3263.50 will change the main trend to up. A move through 3181.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor range is 3263.50 to 3181.00. Its 50% level at 3222.25 is controlling the intraday direction of the market on Wednesday.

The second minor range is 3118.25 to 3263.50. Its retracement zone at 3190.75 to 3173.75 stopped the selling at 3181.00 earlier today.

The main range is 3071.00 to 3263.50. Its retracement zone at 3167.25 to 3144.50 is the best support zone. It represents value so look for buyers to re-emerge on a test of this area.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3242.75, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 3239.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3239.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a rally into a pair of downtrending Gann angles at 3251.50 and 3257.50.

Overcoming a pair of uptrending Gann angles at 3263.00 and 3071.00 will put the index in an extremely bullish position.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3239.50 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a 50% level at 3222.25.

The 50% level is important support so buyers could come in on a test. It is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target an uptrending Gann angle at 3194.25, followed closely by a 50% level at 3190.75 and today’s intraday low at 3181.00.