E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – In Window of Time for Closing Price Reversal Top

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures closed at an all-time high on Friday, but low volume suggests investors may be a little concerned about the upcoming earnings season. After last week’s remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell solidified a 25-basis point rate cut for the end of July, the focus will now shift to the start to earnings this week.

On Friday, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 3015.50, up 11.50 or +0.38%.

The corporate earnings season kicks off with major banks like J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America scheduled to report. According to FactSet, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to have fallen by more than 2% in the second quarter.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3018.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 2963.50.

The short-term range is 2963.50 to 3018.00. Its 50% level or pivot at 2990.75 is minor support.

The intermediate range is 2871.50 to 3018.00. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at 2944.75 to 2927.50 becomes the next downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action and the close at 3015.50, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to last week’s high at 3018.00.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out 3018.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. If buyers come in to defend this price after breaking out to the upside then the index could surge. This is known as buying with conviction.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3018.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the pivot at 2990.75. Look for buyers on the first test of this pivot. If it fails then look for a potential acceleration to the downside with the main bottom at 2963.50 the next target.

Taking out 2963.50 will change the main trend to down. This could lead to a test of the intermediate retracement zone at 2944.75 to 2927.50.

Closing Price Reversal Top

A third scenario is the possibility of a closing price reversal top. Taking out 3018.00 then turning lower for the session will indicate the selling is greater than the buying. If this chart pattern is confirmed then look for the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend break.