E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Inside Day Suggests Indecision, Impending Volatility

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower on Monday, but inside Friday’s range, suggesting investor indecision and impending volatility. The catalysts keeping a lid on prices are caution over rising coronavirus cases globally and elevated Treasury yields that could pull money out of equities if they get high enough.

At 20:10 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 3796.00, down 21.50 or -0.56%.

Stocks on Wall Street slipped ahead of the start of an earnings season that arrives with equities at record highs, and as House Democrats introduced an article of impeachment against President Donald Trump. Rising coronavirus cases across Europe and China dragged down commodity stocks.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3817.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through the last swing bottom at 3596.00.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 3652.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The first minor range is 3652.50 to 3817.75. Its 50% level at 3735.00 is potential support.

The second minor range is 3596.00 to 3817.75. Its 50% level at 3706.75 is additional support.

The short-term range is 3216.25 to 3817.75. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at 3517.00 to 3446.00 will become the primary downside target.

Short-Term Outlook

A sustained move through 3817.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

Taking out 3775.00 will make 3817.75 a new minor top, but it won’t affect any trends. If there is an acceleration to the downside then look for a test of the first pivot at 3735.00.

Side Notes

The best indication that an important short-term top is forming will be a higher-high, lower-close, also known as a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.