E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Intraday Momentum Could Shift on Sustained Move Over 3930.25

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly after the cash market opening on Thursday after hitting a 1-1/2 year low during the pre-market session as fears mounted that fast-rising inflation will drive interest rates higher and bring the global economy to a standstill.

Those problems and a German warning that Russia was now using energy supplies as a “weapon” also pulled down Europe’s top stock indices and left MSCI’s index of world shares nearly 20% lower for the year.

At 13:34 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 3890.00, down 40.25 or -1.02%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is trading $388.15, down $4.60 or -1.17%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low at 3883.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 4303.00 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 4303.00 to 3882.50. Its retracement zone at 4092.75 to 4142.50 is the nearest resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3930.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3930.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the March 30, 2021 main bottom at 3904.75 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a break into the March 24, 2021 main bottom at 3844.50.

A failure to hold 3844.50 could fuel an even further break into the March 8, 2021 main bottom at 3759.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3930.25 will signal the presence of buyers. A close over this level will form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a 2 to 3 day rally into 4092.75 – 4142.50.