E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – January 11, 2017 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower early Wednesday. The range is tight and the market is trading inside Friday’s range for a third session. This indicates investor indecision and impending volatility.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is starting to trend lower. A trade through 2277.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The trend will turn down on a move through 2228.00.

The short-term range is 2228.00 to 2277.00. Its retracement zone at 2252.50 to 2246.75 is the primary downside target. Since the trend is up, we could see a technical bounce on the first test of this zone.

The main range is 2174.25 to 2277.00. If there is a sharp sell-off then its retracement zone at 2225.50 to 2213.50 will become the primary downside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 2263.00 and the downside momentum, look for an early break into the short-term uptrending angle at 2256.00. This is followed by the short-term 50% level at 2252.50.

Taking out 2252.50 could drive the index into the short-term Fib at 2246.75, followed by the short-term uptrending angle at 2242.00.

Look out to the downside if 2242.00 is taken out with conviction. In this case we could see a plunge into the main bottom at 2228.00, followed by the main 50% level at 2225.50 and the long-term uptrending angle at 2224.25.

On the upside, the index has room to run with the nearest target the all-time high at 2277.00. This is followed by a steep uptrending angle at 2284.00. Overtaking this angle will put the index in an extremely bullish position.

Look for volatility during Trump’s press conference. It’s tentatively scheduled for 1600 GMT.