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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Key Area to Watch Today is 2902.75 to 2932.50

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Aug 8, 2019, 07:25 UTC

Based on Wednesday’s close at 2880.50, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader resistance to the main 50% level at 2880.75.

E-mini S&P 500 Index

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures posted a second consecutive dramatic reversal on Wednesday, coming back from another steep sell-off that was fueled by a plunge in global bond yields and concerns over a slowdown in the global economy. After hitting a session low shortly after the cash market opening, the index started to recover from its early losses as the Chinese Yuan and bond yields stabilized.

On Wednesday, the September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures contract settled at 2880.50, up 4.50 or +0.16%.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted to the upside with the formation of a closing price reversal bottom at 2775.75 on August 6 and its subsequent confirmation on Wednesday.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 3029.50. This is highly unlikely on Thursday with buyers still having to deal with short-term retracement zone resistance.

A trade through 2775.75 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 2732.25 to 3029.50. Its retracement zone at 2880.75 to 2845.75 is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

The short-term range is 3029.50 to 2775.75. Its retracement zone at 2902.75 to 2932.50 is the primary upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Wednesday’s close at 2880.50, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader resistance to the main 50% level at 2880.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2881.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. There first target is the short-term retracement zone at 2902.75 to 2932.50. This is zone is very important.

Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to show up on a test of 2902.75 to 2932.50. They are going to try to form a secondary lower top that stops the rally and eventually leads to a resumption of the downtrend. The only way to continue the counter-trend rally is to establish support on the strong side of the short-term retracement zone.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2880.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the weakness to extend into the main Fibonacci level at 2845.75. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the closing price reversal bottom at 2775.75.

Taking out 2775.75 will be another sign of increasing selling pressure with the next target the main bottom at 2732.25.

Overview

Trader reaction to 2902.75 to 2932.50 should set the tone of the market on Thursday.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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