E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Late Strength Over 4169.25, Weakness Under 4126.75

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are edging lower shortly before the mid-session on Friday as investors digest today’s robust U.S. employment report. Treasury yields rose, dampening demand for equities as the number of new jobs added to the economy blew past forecasts, increasing the odds of continued monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve.

At 18:05 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4136.50, down 15.75 or -0.38%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $412.45, down $1.72 or -0.41%.

The Labor Department’s employment report showed the U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, more than double the 258,000 expected, while wage inflation remained hot and the participation rate edged lower.

The strong-than-expected payrolls data appeared to confirm the economy is not yet in recession. That drove up the odds of further rate increases at the Fed’s next meeting in September.

The big winner today is Constellation Energy Corp, up 8.55%. The big loser is Warner Bros Discovery, down 16.59%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower, following the confirmation of Thursday’s closing price reversal top.

A trade through 4173.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 3723.75 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4080.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is a 50% level at 4169.25. This is followed by another 50% level at 4250.25.

The first minor range is 4080.50 to 4173.25. The market is currently straddling its pivot at 4126.75. The second minor range is 3913.25 to 4173.25. If the minor trend changes to down then look for a test of its pivot at 4043.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the pivot at 4126.75 is likely to determine the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4127.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the resistance cluster at 4169.25 to 4173.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4126.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to continue into the minor bottom at 4080.50.

If 4080.50 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the pivot at 4043.25.