E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Looking for Test of 2404.75 – 2350.25

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower during the pre-market session, setting up the market for a lower cash market opening. Today’s early weakness follows the end of the worst first quarter on record for the benchmark index spurred by the coronavirus sell-off.

Today’s sell-off is likely being fueled by negative comments about the impact of the virus from President Trump on Tuesday evening. Trump said the U.S. should prepare for a “very, very painful two weeks” from the rampant coronavirus. Additionally, White House officials are projecting between 100,000 and 240,000 virus deaths in the U.S.

At 06:33 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2488.50, down 81.25 or -3.16%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main trend will change to up on a move through the last swing top at 3131.00. A trade through the last swing bottom at 2174.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. A trade through 2445.00 will change the minor trend to down. This will confirm the shift in momentum to the downside.

The main range is 3131.00 to 2174.00. Its retracement zone at 2652.50 to 2765.50 is resistance. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

The short-term range is 2174.00 to 2635.75. Its retracement zone at 2404.75 to 2350.25 is the primary downside target.

Short-Term Outlook

Tuesday’s closing price reversal top stopped the rally in its tracks. Earlier today, the potentially bearish chart pattern was confirmed when sellers took out yesterday’s low at 2555.75.

A closing price reversal top chart pattern often triggers the start of a 2 to 3 day correction. The first downside target is typically the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 2404.75 to 2350.25.

Aggressive counter-trend buyers could come in on the first test of 2404.75 to 2350.25. They are going to try to form a potentially bullish secondary higher bottom. If successful and volume rises on the move, we could see an eventual change in trend.

If the lower or Fibonacci level at 2350.25 fails as support then look for a retest of the last main bottom at 2174.00.