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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Momentum Sellers May Be Targeting 4443.50 – 4428.75

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Dec 1, 2021, 21:53 UTC

The direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index early Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4500.25.

E-mini S&P 500 Index

In this article:

An early rally by the December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures contract fizzled out on Wednesday, with investors worried about the pandemic after a report of the first confirmed case of the Omicron coronavirus variant in the United States.

At 21:12 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4511.25, down 55.00 or -1.20%.

U.S. health officials have confirmed the country’s first case of the new, heavily mutated coronavirus variant called omicron in California, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday.

Omicron was classified as a “variant of concern” by the World Health Organization on Friday, meaning it is more contagious, more virulent or more skilled at evading public health measures, vaccines and therapeutics.

Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through Wednesday’s low early Thursday will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

A trade through 4717.00 will change the main trend to up. A move through 4740.50 will reaffirm the uptrend. The next major downside target is the October 1 main bottom at 4260.00.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 4543.75 confirmed the minor trend. The next downside target is the minor bottom at 4317.25.

The short-term range is 4260.00 to 4740.50. Late Wednesday, the index tested the upper level of its retracement zone at 4500.25 to 4443.50.

The longer-term range is 4117.00 to 4740.50. Its retracement zone at 4428.75 to 4355.00 is the primary downside target.

Combining the two retracement zones makes 4443.50 to 4428.75 a key price cluster to watch for support.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index early Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4500.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4500.25 will indicate the presence of counter-trend buyers. This could trigger a short-covering rally into a minor pivot at 4607.25, followed close by 4619.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4500.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the support cluster at 4443.50 – 4428.75.

Counter-trend buyers could come in on the first test of 4443.50 – 4428.75. If this area fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the major Fibonacci level at 4355.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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