E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Momentum Strong Over 2745.00, Weak Under 2703.75

The March E-mini S&P 500 Index closed higher last week, settling at 2748.75, up 13.75 or +0.50%. This was the benchmark index’s second consecutive higher close since the massive sell-off the first week or February.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum is still down. Last week’s strong close has put the index in a position to change momentum to the upside.

A trade through 2878.50 will change the main trend to up. A move through 2529.00 will indicate renewed selling pressure.

The major retracement zone at 2599.25 to 2533.25 essentially stopped the selling at 2529.00.

The main range is 2415.50 to 2878.50. Its retracement zone at 2647.00 to 2592.25 is new support.

The short-term range is 2878.50 to 2529.00. The index straddled its retracement zone at 2703.75 to 2745.00 last week. Trader reaction to this zone this week will determine the direction of the momentum.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at 2748.75, the direction of the index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 2745.00.

A sustained move over 2745.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. This should create the upside momentum needed to overcome the steep downtrending Gann angle at 2750.50. This angle is the trigger point for an acceleration into the next two downtrending Gann angles at 2814.50 and 2846.50. The latter is the last potential resistance angle before the 2878.50 main top.

A sustained move under 2745.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the 50% level at 2703.75.

A failure at 2703.75 will indicate the selling is getting stronger with the next potential targets a 50% level at 2647.00, a long-term uptrending Gann angle at 2631.25, a 50% level at 2599.25 and a Fibonacci level at 2592.25.

The Fib level at 2592.25 is another trigger point for an acceleration into 2533.25, 2529.00 and another long-term uptrending Gann angle at 2523.25.

The index could get crushed if 2523.25 fails as support.