E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Needs to Hold 2908.25 Pivot to Sustain Upside Momentum

S&P 500 Index futures settled higher last week. The catalyst behind the rally was an easing of tensions over the trade dispute between the United States and China. This week investors will continue to react to any news regarding trade negotiations and additional tariffs as well as the widely expected Fed rate hike on Wednesday.

For the week, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 2933.75, up 22.25 or +0.76%.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through 2947.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The index is not in a position to change the main trend to down, but it begins the week in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 2869.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The short-term range is 2869.50 to 2947.00. Its 50% level or pivot comes in at 2908.25. This price is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action and the close at 2933.75, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 2908.25.

A sustained move over 2908.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum, we could see a retest of 2947.00. Taking out this level could trigger a breakout to the upside since there is no resistance.

The rally is being driven by momentum. A closing price reversal top chart pattern will stop the momentum and signal that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.

A sustained move under 2908.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into a pair of 50% levels at 2877.00 to 2871.00. This is followed closely by the minor bottom at 2869.50. Since the main trend is up, look for buyers to come in on the initial test of this area. Look out to the downside if 2869.50 fails as support.