E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Needs to Hold 3316.00 to Sustain Upside Momentum

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are treading water shortly after the cash market opening on Thursday as investors awaited a new fiscal aid package to prop up the country’s economy, with new data showing 31.3 million Americans receiving unemployment checks in mid-July.

Top congressional Democrats and White House officials will try again on Thursday to find a compromise on major issues including the size of a federal benefit for the unemployed as they work toward relief legislation.

At 14:41 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3317.50, up 1.50 or +0.05%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3195.00 will change the main trend to down.

The new minor range is 3195.00 to 3329.25. Its 50% level at 3262.00 is potential support and a possible trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3316.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3316.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. This will keep the index on track for a possible test of the February 20 main top at 3396.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3316.00 will be a sign of weakness. This could drive the index into 3262.00. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this level. If it fails to hold as support then look for an eventual test of the main bottom at 3195.00.

A close under 3316.00 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could lead to a 2 to 3 day correction.