E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Needs to Hold 4199.00 to Sustain Upside Momentum

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher at the mid-session with the benchmark index poised to post a gain for the week amid growing optimism over the U.S. economic recovery.

The cash market S&P 500 Index is up more than 1% for the week and sits less than 1% from the record. For the month of May, the S&P 500 is slightly higher.

At 16:57 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 4211.50, up $12.50 or +0.30%.

In economic news, a key inflation indicator, the core personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), rose 3.1% in April, faster than expectations of a 2.9% increase but not as hot as many on Wall Street had feared. Meanwhile, the savings rate remained elevated at 14.9% last month, while consumer spending rose 0.5%, in line with estimates.

Volume and volatility are on the low side with many major players sitting on the sidelines ahead of the long U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at 4217.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.  The main trend will change to down on a move through 4055.50.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4177.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 4142.50 to 4217.50. Its 50% level or pivot at 4180.00 is support.

The short-term range is 4055.50 to 4217.50. Its retracement zone at 4136.50 to 4117.25 is additional support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4199.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4199.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 4217.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. The next potential upside target is the all-time high at 4238.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4199.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into 4180.00, followed closely by the minor bottom at 4177.75. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with another minor bottom at 4142.50 the next target, followed by 4136.50 to 4117.25.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.