E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Needs to Hold 4393.50 to Sustain Upside Momentum

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening on Monday. The price action suggests investors are shrugging off fears about the delta variant having a major impact on the economic recovery especially since U.S. expert Dr. Fauci said on Sunday the variant would not shut down the economy.

At 10:45 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4412.75, up 23.25 or +0.53%.

In other news, the Senate was finalizing the text of a bipartisan infrastructure bill, further bolstering optimism early Monday. The bill includes $550 billion in new spending over five years. That’s on top of previously approved funds of around $450 billion.

In stock related news, Caterpillar shares added 1% in premarket trading, while Square shares sank in premarket trading after Jack Dorsey’s payment company announced a $29 billion all-stock deal to buy Australian installment loan provider Afterpay. Square was off by 3%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4422.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4224.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4370.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will also change momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 4364.75 to 4422.50. The index is currently trading on the strong side of its pivot at 4393.50, making it new support.

The short-term range is 4224.00 to 4422.50. If the minor trend changes to down then look for its retracement zone at 4323.25 to 4299.75 to become the next downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 4393.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4393.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into 4422.50. Taking out this level will signal a resumption of the uptrend and could trigger an acceleration since there is no resistance.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4393.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into a pair of minor bottoms at 4370.75 and 4364.75.

If sellers take out 4364.75 with strong volume then look for a possible acceleration into the short-term retracement zone at 4323.25 to 4299.75.