E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Renewed Pressure Could Drive Market into 2419.75 to 2395.50

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures finished lower on Friday on late session profit-taking ahead of the week-end, Monday’s holiday shortened session and Tuesday’s bank holiday. Heightened volatility continued to be the highlight of the session. There were no changes in the fundamentals so all of the price action was likely fueled by technical factors and value investors responding to grossly oversold conditions.

On Friday, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 2486.00, down 9.00 or -0.36%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on December26 and the subsequent confirmation the next session.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 2690.50. A move through 2316.75 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

From the top down, the main range is 2819.00 to 2316.75. Its retracement zone at 2568.00 to 2627.25 is the primary upside target.

The intermediate range is 2690.50 to 2316.75. Its retracement zone at 2503.75 to 2547.75 provided resistance on Friday.

The short-term range is 2316.75 to 2523.00. Its retracement zone at 2419.75 to 2395.50 is the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 2503.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2503.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is Friday’s high at 2523.00. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next target the Fibonacci level at 2547.75, followed closely by the main 50% level at 2568.00.

Since the main trend is down, any rally is likely to be labored. So look for fresh selling pressure to come in on a test of each retracement level.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2503.75 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is wide open under this level so don’t be surprised by an acceleration to the downside. If sellers come in hard then look for a possible break into the short-term retracement zone at 2419.75 to 2395.50.