E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Ripe for Closing Price Reversal Top

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s close at 2980.75.
James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open slightly higher based on the pre-market trade. The index is being underpinned by increased demand for higher risk assets. The catalysts behind the strength are expectations of a rate cut by the Fed next week and optimism over U.S.-China trade relations.

At 13:27 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2990.50, up 9.75 or +0.30%.

Rising Treasury yields are helping to boost shares of bank stocks, which is helping to drive up the S&P Banking Index.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3029.50 will reaffirm the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 2810.25.

The market is up nine sessions from the last swing bottom which puts the index in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 2889.00 will change the main trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The first support area is a short-term retracement zone at 2932.50 to 2902.50. The second support area is 2880.75 to 2845.75.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s close at 2980.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2980.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the downtrending Gann angle at 2999.50. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 3029.50 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2980.75 will put the index in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. The first downside target is a downtrending Gann angle at 2969.50. If this fails then look for the selling to extend into the uptrending Gann angle at 2954.25.

The angle at 2954.25 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the main Fibonacci level at 2932.50.

A close under 2980.75 could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend correction.

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