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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – September 28, 2018 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Sep 28, 2018, 13:10 UTC

Based on the price action this week, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 2908.25 to 2907.75.

E-mini S&P 500 Index

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open lower based on the pre-market trade. The market is being pressured by lingering trade concerns and geopolitical worries about Italy’s budget. The early price action suggests today will be a risk-off trading session.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top at 2947.00 on September 21.

A trade through 2947.00 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend changes to down on a move through 2883.50.

The minor trend is down. This confirms the shift in momentum to the downside. A trade through 2936.00 will change the minor trend to up.

The short-term range is 2947.00 to 2907.50. Its 50% level or pivot comes in at 2927.25. This level is controlling the direction of the index today.

The intermediate range is 2883.50 to 2947.00. Its retracement zone at 2915.25 to 2907.75 is currently being tested.

The main range is 2869.50 to 2947.00. Its retracement zone at 2908.25 to 2899.00 is the primary downside target. Since the main trend is up buyers could step in on a test of this zone.

Combining the retracement zone identifies 2908.25 to 2907.75 as a key support pivot.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the price action this week, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 2908.25 to 2907.75.

A sustained move over 2908.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into the resistance cluster at 2915.25 to 2915.50.

Overtaking 2915.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into 2927.25. Crossing to the strong side of the uptrending Gann angle at 2931.25 will put the index in a bullish position.

A sustained move under 2907.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a sharp break into the support cluster at 2899.50 to 2899.00.

If 2899.00 fails then look for the selling to extend into the uptrending Gann angle at 2891.50. This is the last potential support angle before the 2883.50 main bottom.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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