E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Setting Up for Closing Price Reversal Top

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are under pressure at the mid-session on Monday on worries about the Omicron coronavirus variant ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting later this week. Seven of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes fell, with only defensive stocks including consumer staples, utilities and real estate gaining.

At 18:14 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4670.25, down 33.25 or -0.71%. The S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is at $467.64, down $3.10 or -0.65%.

Travel-related stocks fell as the fast-spreading Omicron variant now accounted for around 40% of COVID-19 infections in London and at least one death in the United Kingdom.

Carnival Corp’s shares fell nearly 6.9% to lead declines among cruise operators, while the S&P 1500 airlines index shed 4.6%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at 4723.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4735.00 will reaffirm the uptrend.

A trade through 4485.75 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the index is inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4655.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 4655.25 to 4723.25. The market is currently trading on the weak side of its pivot at 4689.25, making it resistance.

The short-term range is 4485.75 to 4723.25. If the minor trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 4604.50 to 4576.50.

The main range is 4252.75 to 4735.00. Its retracement zone at 4493.75 to 4437.00 is the primary downside target. This zone stopped the selling at 4485.75 on December 3. It is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4703.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4703.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the pivot at 4689.25 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could create the momentum needed to challenge the minor bottom at 4655.25.

Taking out 4655.25 could trigger an acceleration into 4604.50 to 4576.50. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on a test of this area.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4703.50 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a retest of the intraday high at 4723.25. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a new all-time high on a breakout over 4735.00.