E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 2889.00, Weakens Under 2863.75

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled higher last week and within striking distance of its all-time high reached on January 29. Last week, the cash market hit a record high.

For the week, the index finished at 2876.75, up 24.50 or +0.86%.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through 2899.00 will reaffirm the uptrend. There is no resistance above this price. The main trend changes to down on a move through 2693.25 so the uptrend is probably safe for now. The only pattern to watch for is a closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 2803.00 will change the minor trend to down. This is followed by another minor bottom at 2791.00.

The main range is 2889.00 to 2538.75. Its retracement zone at 2755.25 to 2714.00 is support.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at 2876.75, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the previous main top at 2863.75.

A sustained move over 2863.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge 2889.00. There is no resistance above this level.

A sustained move under 2863.75 will signal the presence of sellers. It will also indicate that last week’s rally was likely driven by short-covering rather than new buying. This is often a sign of weakness and that the index may have to pull back into support in order to attract new buyers.

The first downside target is a steep uptrending Gann angle at 2837.25. This angle provided support two weeks ago when buyers came in at 2803.00. It has also been guiding the index higher for 8 weeks at a rate of 16 points per week since the week-ending June 29.

Look for buyers on the first test of 2837.25. If it fails then we could see a break into 2803.00 then 2791.00. If they fail then the index could accelerate into a pair of uptrending Gann angles at 2778.75 and 2765.25.