E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 3238.00, Weakens Under 3194.75

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading sharply lower on Thursday after data confirmed the economy suffered its steepest contraction since the Great Depression in the second quarter, adding to gloom from job losses and a resurgence in coronavirus cases.

At 14:16 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 index futures are at 3217.00, down 35.50 or -1.09%.

In other news, Qualcomm Inc, United Parcel Service Inc, and Procter & Gamble Co were among the early gainers after results releases, with Johnson & Johnson up 2% as it started human safety trials for its COVID-19 vaccine.

Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Alphabet Inc and Facebook Inc will post results at the same time for the first time later on Thursday, with some on Wall Street questioning their valuations after this year’s gains.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending lower. A trade through 3191.50 will change the main trend to down. The uptrend will be reaffirmed on a move through the two swing tops at 3257.00 and 3284.50.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum.

The minor range is 3284.50 to 3191.50. Its 50% retracement level at 3238.00 is resistance.

The short-term range is 3105.25 to 3284.50. Its retracement zone at 3194.75 to 3173.75 is support.

The intermediate range is 2923.75 to 3284.50. Its retracement zone at 3104.00 to 3061.50 is a major downside target zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3217.00, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 3194.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3194.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. They are likely defending the main bottom at 3191.50, while trying to prevent a change in trend.

The first upside objective is 3238.00. Overcoming this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a move into 3257.00. Taking out this level will keep the uptrend intact.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3194.75 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out 3191.50 will change the main trend to down and should drive the index into the Fibonacci level at 3173.75.

The Fib level at 3173.75 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next major target a price cluster at 3105.25 to 3104.00.

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