E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 3808.00, Weakens Under 3779.00

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading nearly flat shortly after the cash market opening after recovering from earlier losses. Investors are nervous about a jump in U.S. bond yields that is weighing on risk appetite.

Investors are anticipating a rise in inflation with governments continuing to pump money into the global economy and as vaccination programs progress.

At 14:42 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3815.50, down 1.25 or -0.03%.

Investors are also waiting to see if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will address concerns about the risk of a rapid rise in long-term borrowing costs later in the day at 17:05 GMT. Traders are hoping for a volatile reaction at that time.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low at 3777.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 3934.50.

The index is currently straddling a pair of 50% levels at 3808.00 and 3779.00.

The short-term range is 3959.25 to 3777.50. Its 50% level at 3868.50 is a potential upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of this level.

The major support is a retracement zone at 3728.25 to 3673.75. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3808.00 and 3779.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3808.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then 3868.50 will become the primary upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3808.00 will be the first sign of selling pressure. This could trigger a move into 3779.00 and 3777.50.

Taking out 3777.50 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 3728.25 the next likely downside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.