E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 2993.75 Will Set Today’s Tone

Based on Wednesday’s price action and close at 2982.25, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 2993.75.
James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures plunged on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tempered the chances of aggressive rate cuts by the central bank later this year. Fed policymakers did cut its benchmark interest rate 25-basis points as widely expected, but the steep intraday sell-off indicates that investors wanted more from the bank. Ahead of the Fed announcements, traders were looking for additional cuts in September and December.

On Wednesday, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 2982.25, down 30.00 or -1.01%.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down on Wednesday when sellers took out the last swing bottom at 2969.50. It was reaffirmed when 2963.50 was violated.

A trade through 2958.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The next target is the main bottom at 2914.50. A trade through 3029.50 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 3029.50 to 2958.00. Its 50% level or pivot at 2993.75 is potential resistance.

The intermediate range is 2871.50 to 3029.50. Its retracement zone at 2950.50 to 2931.75 is potential support. This zone may have stopped the selling on Wednesday.

The main range is 2732.25 to 3029.50. Its retracement zone at 2880.75 to 2845.75 is the major support and value zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Wednesday’s price action and close at 2982.25, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 2993.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2993.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look of a retest of yesterday’s low at 2958.00. This is followed by the 50% level at 2950.50. If it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the Fibonacci level at 2931.75. This is followed by the main bottom at 2914.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2993.75 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into the main top at 3029.50.

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