E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 4151.50 Pivot Could Set Tone

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are inching higher on Wednesday shortly before the cash market opening and the release of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement and interest rate decisions at 18:00 GMT. Investors are also digesting several major technology earnings reports released after the bell on Tuesday.

At 11:35 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4180.50, up 1.50 or +0.04%.

After the bell on Tuesday, Google parent Alphabet reported better-than-expected earnings, sending shares of the tech giant up more than 5% in pre-market trading. Microsoft shares dipped about 2% in early trading even after the company topped analyst earnings. Shares of AMD and Visa were higher in early trading after better-than-expected results.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but yesterday’s closing price reversal top warns of a potential shift in momentum.

A trade through 4192.50 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 4110.50.

A move through 4166.75 will confirm the closing price reversal top and shift momentum to the downside.

The short-term range is 4110.50 to 4192.50. Its 50% level at 4151.50 is potential support.

The main range is 3843.25 to 4192.50. If the main trend changes to down on a trade through 4110.50 then its retracement zone at 4017.75 to 3976.50 will become the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4192.50 and 4166.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4192.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside. There is no resistance, but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, we could see another closing price reversal top form, especially since it is Fed day.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4166.75 will signal the presence of sellers. It will also confirm the closing price reversal top. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The first downside target is the 50% level at 4151.50. If this level is taken out with heavy volume then look for the sell-off to possibly extend into the main bottom at 4110.50.