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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 4189.00 Pivot Sets the Tone

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: May 3, 2021, 13:35 UTC

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4189.00.

E-mini S&P 500 Index

In this article:

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are inching higher on Monday after a week of largely upbeat earnings strengthened expectations of sustained profit growth for companies

Improving economic data, strong earnings, fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve’s ultra-accommodative stance have supported markets, pushing the S&P 500 to record levels last week.

At 13:15 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4193.50, up 19.00 or +0.46%.

With more than half of S&P 500 companies having already reported results so far, profits are seen rising 46% in the first quarter, compared with forecasts of 24% growth at the start of April, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum shifted to the downside briefly late last week. A trade through 4211.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend changes to down on a move through 4110.50.

The minor trend is down. It turned down on Friday when sellers took out 4168.00. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 4167.25 will indicate the selling pressure is increasing.

The minor range is 4211.00 to 4167.25. The index is currently straddling its pivot at 4189.00.

The short-term range is 4110.50 to 4211.00. Its 50% level at 4160.75 is potential support and a trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4189.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4189.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a breakout over 4211.00. There is no resistance, but we’ll keep watching for a closing price reversal top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4189.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into 4167.25, followed closely by 4160.75.

Taking out 4160.75 with strong selling volume could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 4110.50 the near-term target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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