E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 4480.00 Sets the Tone into Close

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are edging higher on Friday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech that could offer clues on when the central bank will start paring back its large stimulus program.

At 13:56 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4479.25, up 12.75 or +0.29%.

Powell, who is due to speak via webcast at 14:00 GMT at the annual Jackson Hole economic conference, may acknowledge the economy’s progress toward full employment, and likely provide hints about slowing the $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, with an announcement expected before the end of 2021.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4498.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4347.75 will change the main trend to down.

The minor range is 4498.00 to 4462.25. The index is currently testing its pivot at 4480.25.

The short-term range is 4347.75 to 4498.00. If the two-day sell-off continues then its retracement zone at 4422.75 to 4405.00 will become the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4480.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4480.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a drive into 4498.00.

Taking out the record high at 4498.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside since there is no identifiable resistance.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4480.00 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is 4462.25. Taking out this level late in the session could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 4422.75 to 4405.00 the primary downside target.

Side Notes

Taking out 4498.00 then closing lower will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

Taking out 4494.25 then 4462.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.