E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 4782.25 Sets Tone into Close

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading at a record high on Tuesday as belief in the U.S. economy helped investors shrug off concerns over Omicron-driven travel disruptions and store closures, and extended Wall Street’s four-day rally amid thin trading volumes.

At 15:18 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4786.25, up 4.00 or +0.08%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $477.86, up $0.60 or +0.13%.

Among the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes, eight traded higher on Tuesday and financials led the charge. In stock related news, Carnival Corp is up 3.542%, while Disney added 2.20%.

The stock market is in one of its seasonally strong periods, also called the Santa Claus Rally, with CFRA Research data showing the S&P 500 has on average risen 1.3% in the last 5 trading days of the year, and the first two days of the new year since 1969.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at 4798.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4520.25 will change the main trend to down.

The new minor range is 4520.25 to 4798.00. Its retracement zone at 4659.00 to 4626.25 is new support.

The major support zone has moved up to 4525.25 to 4461.00.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4782.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4782.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 4798.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. There is no resistance, but due to the steep five day rally, the index is vulnerable to a closing price reversal top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4782.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a possible test of 4713.25. Taking out this level will turn 4798.00 into a new minor top.

A close under 4782.25 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger a 2 to 3 day break into 4659.00 – 4626.25.