E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Traders Reacting to Major Fibonacci Level at 2711.50

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 2711.50.
James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly after the cash market opening. The selling started early in the session on concerns over a slowing global economy. Dovish central banks are partly responsible for the selling pressure. Over the past few weeks the European Central Bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have warned about weakening economies. This week, it was the Reserve Bank of Australia that signaled the economy may be weak enough to warrant a rate cut later in the year.

At 18:04 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2694.25, down 35.25 or -1.26%.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The price action also indicates that momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside. A trade through 2704.25 will turn the index lower for the week.

A trade through 2737.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 2612.50.

The major retracement zone is 2711.50 to 2636.00. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the index. Falling back inside this zone will neutralize the uptrend.

The short-term range is 2612.25 to 2737.75. Its 50% level at 2675.00 is the first downside target. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on a test of this level.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 2711.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2711.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. They are trying to defend the uptrend. If this can create enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at 2737.75. Taking out this level will reaffirm the uptrend with the main top at 2819.00 the next potential upside target over the near-term.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2711.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the short-term 50% level at 2675.00 the next likely downside target. If this level fails then look for another potential acceleration with 2636.00 the next target level.

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