E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Treading Water ahead of ‘Quadruple Witching’ Close

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading nearly flat at the mid-session on Friday as investors try to develop support ahead of the weekend after a week of relentless selling pressure. Earlier in the session, the market pressed lower before volatility arrived to turn the index slightly higher for the session.

At 17:06 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3687.25, up 16.00 or +0.44%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $367.46, up $2.39 or +0.65%.

Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday echoed the central bank’s commitment to tamping down inflation after hiking rates by 75 basis points earlier this week. The Fed is “acutely focused on returning inflation to our 2 percent objective,” he said.

Quadruple Witching Day

Market volatility could be the theme late Friday thanks to “quadruple witching.” This refers to the simultaneous expiration of stock index futures, single-stock futures, stock options and stock index options. This event happens once a quarter and typically leads to a surge in trading volume, making for choppy trading action as traders close out positions.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3639.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

A move through 4204.75 will change the main trend to up. This is highly unlikely but due to the prolonged move down in price and time, the market is in a position to post a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 3843.00 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 3843.00 to 3639.00. Its 50% level or pivot at 3741.00 is potential resistance.

The short-term range is 4204.75 to 3639.00. If the minor trend changes to up then its retracement zone at 3922.00 to 3988.75 will become the primary upside target area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 3671.25 is likely to determine the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3671.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the minor pivot a 3741.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3671.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of the intraday low at 3639.00. Followed by the February 2, 2021 main bottom at 3639.00.