E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trend Changed to Up, but Low Volume Prevented Upside Breakout

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures posted a choppy, two-sided trade on Friday before settling slightly lower. Despite changing the trend to up for the first time since July 30, the index lacked the buying volume to really breakout to the upside. This may have been because of the light pre-holiday trade. The U.S. markets are closed on Monday because of the Labor Day holiday.

On Friday, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 2924.75, down 2.00 or -0.07%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned up when buyers took out 2939.75 on Friday. It was reaffirmed when buyers overcame 2944.25. However, the relatively light volume prevented the market from accelerating to the upside after confirming the change in trend.

A move through 2810.25 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 2851.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside. It will also send a warning that the main trend is vulnerable.

The main range is 2732.25 to 3029.50. Its retracement zone at 2880.75 to 2845.75 is controlling the near-term direction of the index. This zone is major support.

The short-term range is 3029.50 to 2775.75. Its retracement zone at 2902.50 to 2932.50 is potential resistance and also the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside. The market failed to surge to the upside when the index crossed to the strong side of this zone on Friday. However, it still managed to close inside this area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at 2924.75, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Tuesday when we resume trading after the holiday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 2932.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2932.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is Friday’s high at 2946.50. This has the potential to become a trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the July 26 top at 3029.50 the primary upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2932.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the short-term 50% level at 2902.50. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on a test of this level. If it fails then look for a potential pullback into the main retracement zone at 2880.75 to 2845.75.