E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakens Under 3777.50, Strengthens Over 3808.00

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening on Friday after government data showed larger-than-expected jobs growth in February, reinforcing bets on an economic rebound driven by massive fiscal stimulus and vaccination drives, according to Reuters.

The rally is taking place despite another rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which is causing a little divergence in the market, but on the other hand, may be signaling the start of a counter-trend recovery in the benchmark index. That’s a fancy way of saying the market was oversold and ripe for a recovery.

At 14:39 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3810.25, up 44.75 or +1.19%.

The price action could be suggesting the market may be moving into a consolidation phase ahead of the March 17 Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. Powell told the market how he felt on Thursday so investors really have nothing to fear from the Fed, in my opinion, until the FOMC meeting.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3720.50 will signal resumption of the downtrend with 3656.50 the next major target.

The main trend will change to up on a move through 3934.50, followed by the record high at 3959.25.

The main range is 3216.25 to 3959.25. Its retracement zone is the major support controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

The intermediate range is 3596.00 to 3959.25. Traders are trying to turn its 50% level at 3777.50 into support.

The short-term range is 3656.50 to 3959.25. The index is currently testing its 50% level at 3808.00.

The minor range is 3959.25 to 3720.50. Its 50% level at 3840.00 is potential resistance and a trigger point to the upside.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the E-mini S&P 500 Index on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to 3777.50 and 3808.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3777.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a move into yesterday’s low at 3720.50. Taking out this level will indicate the selling is getting stronger with 3656.50 the next major target.

If 3656.50 fails as support then look for the selling to extend into 3587.75 to 3500.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3808.00 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 3840.00. This is the last potential support before the 3934.50 and 3959.25 main tops.

Side Notes

Be careful trading inside 3777.50 to 3808.00. You could get chopped up.

If March 10-year U.S. Treasury notes turn positive, the index could surge to the upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.