E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakens Under 3910.75, Strengthens Over 3827.00

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly after the mid-session on Friday. The move is being driven by bank shares and economic reopening stocks as investors celebrated a report showing subdued inflation.

Financial stocks have been supported since the Federal Reserve announced that banks could resume buybacks and raise dividends starting at the end of June. Shares of JPMorgan rose 1.5%, while Bank of America advanced 2%. Goldman Sachs gained 1%.

At 18:03 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3923.50, up 23.00 or +0.59%.

Fears of rising inflation eased after government data showed tamed inflation. The core personal consumption expenditure price index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% month over month, matching expectations from economists polled by Dow Jones. Year over year, the gauge climbed 1.4%, slightly lower than a 1.5% estimate.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3978.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. Taking out 3843.25 will shift momentum to the downside.

The minor trend is down. A trade through 3944.50 will change the minor trend to up. This will confirm the change in momentum to up.

The minor range is 3978.50 to 3843.25. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at 3910.75 to 3927.00.

The short-term range is 3710.50 to 3978.50. Its 50% level at 3844.50 stopped the selling on Thursday.

The main range is 3648.00 to 3978.50. Its retracement zone at 3813.25 to 3774.25 is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3910.75 and 3927.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3927.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the minor top at 3944.50. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 3978.50 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3910.75 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a minor pivot at 3888.50. If this fails then look for the selling pressure to extend into 3844.50 – 3843.25.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.