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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakens Under 4133.75, Strengthens Over 4158.50

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: May 17, 2021, 15:16 UTC

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 4158.50.

E-mini S&P 500 Index

In this article:

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are inching lower shortly after the cash market opening on Monday. Gains are likely being capped as signs of inflationary pressures building up in the economy kept investors worried about monetary policy tightening. Four of the 11 major S&P sectors are under pressure, with technology leading losses.

At 14:52 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4154.50, down 14.50 or -0.35%.

In other news, with earnings season at its tail-end, overall earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to have climbed 50.6% from a year ago, according to Refinitiv IBES, the strongest pace of growth in 11 years.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4238.25 will change the main trend to up. A move through 4029.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 3843.25 to 4238.25. Its retracement zone at 4040.75 to 3994.00 stopped the selling last week at 4029.25. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

The short-term range is 4238.25 to 4029.25. Its retracement zone at 4133.75 to 4158.50 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the short-term direction of the index.

Since the main trend is down, sellers are trying to establish a potentially bearish secondary lower top on a test of 4133.75 to 4158.50.

Buyers are trying to drive the market through 4158.50 in an effort to establish 4029.25 as an important swing bottom.

The new minor range is 4029.25 to 4178.75. Its 50% level at 4104.00 is a potential downside target. Look for counter-trend buyers on a pullback into this zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 4158.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4158.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 4178.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 4238.25 the next upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4158.50 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the 50% level at 4133.75. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 4104.00 the next likely downside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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