E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Weekly Selling Pressure Could Intensify if Gann Angle at 2763.50 Fails

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are in a weak position as we approach the end of the week. The outside move on the weekly chart is the first sign of increasing selling pressure. A close under 2805.00 on Friday will be next sign of weakness because this will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

At 03:31 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2768.50, down 3.00 or -0.11%.

A closing price reversal top won’t change the trend to down, but it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 week correction.

The lack of progress in the trade negotiations between the United States and China is making investors nervous. Some investors are paring positions because they believe the deal to end the trade dispute has already been priced into the market. Other investors are taking protection against the possibility President Trump will walk away from the trade talks.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. The trend turned up on a trade through 2819.00 earlier in the week. However, the rally stopped short of the next main top at 2824.50.

With the index trading lower for the week after a prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the emphasis shifts to trader reaction to last week’s close at 2805.00.

The minor trend is also up, but this week’s price action made 2819.75 a new minor top.

The main range is 2955.50 to 2316.75. Its retracement zone at 2711.50 to 2636.00 is controlling the longer-term direction of the index. This zone is the first major downside target and possible support zone.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on the price action this week, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 2763.50.

Bullish Scenario

Holding 2763.50 will indicate the return of buyers. If this move can create enough upside momentum then look for buyers to take a run at last week’s close at 2805.00. Overtaking this level will turn the index higher for the week with 2819.75 the next likely upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2763.50 will signal that the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside into the Fibonacci level at 2711.50. Look for a technical bounce on the first test of this level.

If 2711.50 fails then look for another steep sell-off into the support cluster at 2636.75 to 2636.00.