E-mini S&P 500 Trade through 4290.00 Shifts Momentum to Up

March E-mini S&P 500 Index are edging lower early Friday after failing to follow-through to the upside following yesterday’s potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Thursday, led by a strong recovery in the technology sector, as U.S. President Joe Biden unveiled harsh new sanctions against Russia after Moscow began an all-out invasion of Ukraine.

At 03:48 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4254.25, down 29.75 or -0.69%. On Thursday, the S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) settled at $428.31, up $6.36 or +1.51%.

The benchmark index sold off early in the day on Thursday on news of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It hit its high of the session in the wake of Biden’s comments and rallied heading into the close. The move ended its four-day slide.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4290.00 will confirm Thursday’s closing price reversal bottom, shifting momentum to the upside. A move through 4101.75 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend. A trade through 4484.50 will change the main trend to up.

The main range is 3718.50 to 4808.25. The index is currently straddling its 50% level at 4263.50. This is the mid-point of the 52-week range. The 61.8% of this range is 4134.75.

The first minor range pivot at 4293.25 is resistance. The second minor range pivot resistance is 4344.00.

The short-term range is 4808.25 to 4101.75. Its retracement zone at 4455.00 to 4538.50 is the key resistance area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index early Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4263.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4263.50 will indicate the presence of counter-trend buyers. A trade through 4290.00 and 4293.25 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

Taking out 4293.25 could trigger a surge into 4344.00. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 4455.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4263.50 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is 4195.75. If this fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into 4134.75, followed closely by 4101.75.

Side Notes

Keep in mind that the main trend is down so upside retracement levels are also resistance levels and could draw the attention of bearish traders.