ETH Bears Eye Sub-$1,800 on Fed Fear and Binance Woes

Key Insights:

• ETH joined the broader market in the red on Monday, falling 2.06% to end the day at $1,851.
• SEC v Binance-related news sent ETH in the red, with SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple ruling adding the bearish sentiment.
• The shorter-term technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a fall to sub-$1,800.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 2.06% on Monday. Reversing a 1.29% gain from Sunday, ETH ended the day at $1,851. The bearish session sent ETH to sub-$1,850 for the first time since July 10.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was up 0.08% to $1,852. A range-bound start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,846 before steadying.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ETH sitting below the $1,895 – $1,865 support band and the 50-day EMA ($1,872) while holding above the 200-day EMA ($1,777), sending bearish near-term but bulling longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, a bearish price signal.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 44.75 reading signaled a bearish outlook, signaling a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band. However, an ETH move through the 50-day EMA ($1,872) would give the bulls a run at the upper level of the $1,865 – $1,895 support band and $1,900.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at $1,850. ETH sat below the $1,895 – $1,865 support band. ETH also remained below the 50-day ($1,887) and 200-day ($1,883) EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA converged on the 200-day EMA, signaling a run at the $1,815 – $1,795 support band. However, a move through the EMAs and the $1,895 – $1,865 support band would give the bulls a run at $1,950.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 37.03 sends bearish ETH price signals, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the bearish RSI supports a run at the $1,185 – $1,795 support band.

SEC v Binance-Related News Brings Sub-$1,800 into Range

On Monday, news hit the wires of the SEC alleging Binance.US wash traded. The Wall Street Journal reported that $70,000 of BTC changed hands within the first hour, with Binance CEO CZ saying, “That was ourself, I think.”

According to the Wall Street Journal Report,

“The day after the platform (Binance.US) was launched in September 2019, wash trading between Sigma Chain accounts and accounts owned by Zhao and senior employees constituted nearly 70% of trading volume for one token, the SEC alleged.”

The latest WSJ report could leave Binance.US, Binance, and CZ in a precarious position if there is evidence of wash trading.

Fed Fear added to the bearish mood, with investors betting on a final 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike on Wednesday. A more hawkish policy outlook would spook investors.

Staking Statistics Send Bearish Price Signals Again

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows fell from 46,400 ETH on Sunday to 23,104 on Monday. Staking inflows declined to below the recent ranges, reflecting bearish sentiment.

The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with principal withdrawals at above-normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session are bullish. Projections show ETH withdrawals will return to normal withdrawal levels throughout the morning.

On Monday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 39,820 ETH surplus ($74.78 million), down 6.3% over 24 hours. Deposits totaled 49,560 versus withdrawals of 9,740 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 30,500 ETH, equivalent to approximately $56.47 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.76%, down 0.17% over 24 hours. The fall in the staking APR and lower staking inflows are ETH price negative.