ETH Staking and Withdrawal Statistics to Test Buyers Ahead of US Debt Talks

Key Insights:

• On Monday, ETH joined the broader market in positive territory, gaining 0.94% to wrap up the day at $1,817.
• Rising staking inflows and a bearish withdrawal profile capped the upside as investors await updates from the US debt ceiling talks.
• However, the technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$1,700.

Ethereum (ETH) rose by 0.94% on Monday. Following a 0.22% gain on Sunday, ETH ended the day at $1,817. Significantly, ETH avoided the red for the third time in ten sessions while falling short of the $1,850 handle for the fifth consecutive session.

A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to a first-hour low of $1,786. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,786, ETH rose to a late afternoon high of $1,848. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,820 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,839 before easing back to wrap up the day at $1,817.

Staking Statistics and the Withdrawal Profile Cap the Upside

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows increased from 45,472 ETH on Sunday to 80,864 on Monday. Staking inflows increased for the first time in four sessions. However, inflows remained subdued relative to the recent highs.

The total value staked continued rising, supported by the bullish ETH session and an upward trend in ETH staking inflows.

Overnight, the withdrawal profile was more bullish. Principal withdrawals returned to normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session were bearish, with principal ETH withdrawals projected to spike.

Another sharp increase in staking inflows would limit the effect of a spike in withdrawals. On Monday, the net ETH staking balance fell from a surplus of 43,640 ETH to a 38,630 ETH surplus, equivalent to $69.84 million. Deposits totaled 50,930 ETH versus withdrawals of 12,290 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 40,460 ETH, equivalent to approximately $73.20 million.

Easing fears of a US government default on payments was good news though policymakers have yet to agree to raise the debt ceiling.

The Day Ahead

Staking statistics and the withdrawal profile will continue to draw interest. A slide in principal withdrawals and a spike in staking inflows would be bullish.

Investors should monitor the crypto news wires throughout the session. SEC v Ripple case-related news will move the dial, with Binance and Coinbase (COIN) also areas of interest.

The US economic calendar will influence the afternoon. US retail sales and industrial production will be in focus. The retail sales numbers should have more impact as investors look for signals that could influence the Fed.

However, Fed chatter and US debt ceiling-related news will also need consideration. Failed talks between US President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy would spook investors.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 0.68% to $1,805. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,824 before falling to a low of $1,801.

ETH Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

ETH needs to move through the $1,817 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,848. A move through the morning high of $1,824 would signal a breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics and US debt ceiling updates must support a breakout.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,879 and resistance at $1,900. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,941.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,786 in play. However, barring another risk-off-fueled sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,750. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,755 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,693.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,827. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($1,827) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,848) and the 100-day EMA ($1,849) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($1,879) and $1,900. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($1,827) would leave S1 ($1,786) in view.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.