Ethereum Price Forecast: A 50% ETH Price Crash May Happen Despite Recovery

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), recovered by over 20% since reaching its local low at around $2,620 in early November, and was trading for over $3,000 as of Dec. 9.

Technical and onchain indicators hint at further price declines. Let’s examine.

Ethereum Technical Analysis: Classic Bearish Reversal Pattern Points to 50%-Plus Decline Ahead

Ethereum is shaping what appears to be a textbook inverse cup-and-handle pattern, a bearish structure that now threatens a deeper breakdown toward the $1,500 zone in the coming months.

The pattern began forming after ETH’s climb toward $4,100 in August, followed by a rounded top and a sharp slide through its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages.

The handle portion has taken the form of a rising channel, but price action is struggling to break above the $3,150 region, precisely where the 50-day EMA continues to cap upside attempts.

A breakdown below the channel’s lower trendline, currently near $2,900, would confirm bearish continuation and validate the inverse cup-and-handle target around $1,500.

The measured move aligns with ETH’s major horizontal support area from early 2024, reinforcing the case for a retest if momentum weakens. Until bulls reclaim the $3,300–$3,450 range, Ethereum’s risk remains skewed to the downside.

Ethereum On-Chain Analysis: ETH Flows to Binance Raise Selloff Risks

The unusually large ETH inflow to Binance on Dec. 5 adds another layer of downside risk to the inverse cup-and-handle setup.

A 162,000-ETH net deposit—its biggest since May 2023—suggests that a portion of larger holders may be preparing to offload supply into the market, according to CryptoOnChain, a CryptoQuant-associated onchain analyst.

Historically, such spikes have preceded periods of elevated volatility or accelerated downside, particularly when prices are already trading below major moving averages, as is currently the case with ETH.

If even a fraction of this inflow converts into market sell orders, it could pressure the fragile rising-channel “handle” structure and force a breakdown below $2,900.

That would validate the bearish continuation toward the $1,500 technical target.