Ethereum (ETH) has gone up by 4% in the past 7 days but keeps struggling to stay above $4,000 as uncertainty prevails ahead of today’s interest rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The top altcoin has been swinging on and off this psychological threshold for days, but net inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to ETH seem to indicate that buying pressure remains strong.
Ethereum ETFs Net Inflows – Source: Farside Investors
Data from Farside Investors shows that these vehicles have received $380 million in the first two days of this week, breaking a 3-day streak of negative inflows from the week before.
Despite the latest setback, ETH’s recovery this year continues to be remarkable, moving from a loss of around 40% at some point to a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 20%.
The successful implementation of the Pectra upgrade and its positive impact on the network’s operational performance contributed to improving the token’s outlook.
Meanwhile, institutional adoption of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies continues to rise, and Ethereum continues to be the go-to blockchain for deploying decentralized apps.
The network leads in both the decentralized finance (DeFi) and the real-world assets (RWAs) segment, with market shares that exceed 50% in each case. The reason for this is decentralization, as the Ethereum network has an ample web of independent validators that protect the blockchain from 51% attacks.
Ethereum has been consolidating for nearly three months now, as it has hit a ceiling multiple times at $4,800.
ETH/USD Daily Chart (Binance) – Source: TradingView
However, the token has managed to stay above $3,800 as well, bouncing off this former resistance turned to support in various occasions.
We have seen these kinds of accumulation phases in the past, and they have mostly ended with a strong spike to a higher high. If this is the case again for ETH, we could expect a move toward $7,700 at least in the near term, based on historical patterns.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) just sent a weak buy signal upon climbing above the 14-day moving average. Trading volumes confirmed the relevance of this signal as it coincides with yet another touch of the $3,800 support.
Even though altcoin season was temporarily derailed by President Trump’s unexpected 100% tariff increase on Chinese imported goods, today’s interest rate decision could put the market back on track and set ETH on course to finally hit $5,000.
Analysts surveyed by the CME Group’s FedWatch give a 99.9% chance that the Fed will cut rates today by 25 basis points. Surprisingly, they also assigned an 87% chance of another cut of the same magnitude during the central bank’s December meeting.
This creates the perfect environment for a sustained increase in the price of risky assets like cryptocurrencies, as yield-chasers will likely turn to this asset class for higher returns. The launch of a Solana full-staking ETF this week, offering a 7.3% APY, and the market’s strong initial interest in the product confirm this trend.
Hence, even though Trump may have temporarily backstopped the rally, the Fed’s actions could set things straight and keep cryptos moving higher over the next few weeks.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.