Ethereum Records Worst Week Since March: Is It The End of ETH Bull Run?

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has just logged its worst weekly performance since March 2025, plunging as much as 21.75% before stabilizing near the $3,300 mark.

The drop comes amid a sharp sell-off in AI-related tech stocks—a key liquidity driver for the broader risk market—sparking fears of a deeper correction across the cryptocurrency market.

Ethereum Tests Key Support, Shows Signs of Rejection

Despite the brutal drop, Ethereum is showing early signs of a bullish rejection.

The ETH/USD pair has rebounded after testing its 200-3D exponential moving average (20-3D EMA; the blue wave) near $3,067, a technical level that has historically marked the end of major pullbacks within bullish phases.

As of writing, ETH trades below its 50-3D EMA (~$3,765), which now serves as the immediate upside target if the current bounce extends. A successful reclaim of this level could confirm that the correction is merely a pause in the ongoing uptrend, not the end of it.

Adding to the optimism, the relative strength index (RSI) is closing toward the oversold territory, suggesting exhaustion may kick in among sellers, leading to a short-term relief rally.

Macro Rotation May Favor ETH in the Short Term

The broader macro picture also hints at a possible rebound.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed to overbought levels, flashing early signs of overheating. Historically, such phases have led to short-term capital rotation out of defensive assets like the dollar and back into risk assets — including cryptocurrencies.

If this pattern repeats, Ethereum could benefit from renewed inflows as traders seek opportunities in oversold sectors.

That would align with the technical scenario of a bounce toward the $3,700–$3,800 area—the confluence of the 50-EMA and a descending trendline resistance visible on the 3-day chart.

Historical Echoes: 2020 Fractal Reappears

Crypto analyst Galaxy (@GalaxyBTC) highlighted on X that Ethereum’s current structure mirrors the 2020 V-bottom recovery pattern that preceded the last major bull run.

Back then, ETH faced a similar ~38% correction before rallying nearly 10x over the following year.

“Similarities between now and 2020 are fascinating,” Galaxy noted, emphasizing that the ETH bull market remains intact despite the current volatility. In both cases, the correction followed a parabolic climb from a V-shaped recovery base.

Pi Cycle Indicator and 111DMA Breakdown

On-chain data from Glassnode also reveals Ethereum’s price has dipped below its 111-day moving average (111DMA), the lower band of the Pi Cycle Top Indicator.

This same signal appeared earlier in 2024, leading to a local bottom around $1,475, before ETH surged more than 115% to reclaim the $3,200 zone.

If history rhymes, the current breakdown could mark the late stages of a cooling phase before the next major impulse leg higher.