EUR/USD Daily Forecast – U.S. Dollar Continues To Gain Ground Ahead Of The Weekend

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Updated: Jun 4, 2021, 07:46 UTC

EUR/USD settled below the support at 1.2130 and is trying to settle below the 50 EMA.

U.S. Dollar Moves Higher Against Euro

EUR/USD is currently trying to settle below the 50 EMA at 1.2110 while the U.S. dollar is gaining ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has settled above the resistance at 90.50 and made an attempt to get to the test of the next resistance level which is located at the 50 EMA at 90.70. If the U.S. Dollar Index gets above this level, it will move towards the resistance at 90.90 which will be bearish for EUR/USD.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will have a chance to take a look at Euro Area Retail Sales data for April. Analysts expect that Retail Sales declined by 1.2% on a month-over-month basis. On a year-over-year basis, Retail Sales are projected to grow by 25.5% as they were under huge pressure in April 2020.

Later, market’s focus will shift to U.S. employment data. Non Farm Payrolls report is projected to show that the U.S. economy added 650,000 jobs in May. This report may have a significant impact on currency dynamics. If Non Farm Payrolls are higher than expected, the U.S. dollar will likely get more support. Meanwhile, Unemployment Rate is expected to decline from 6.1% in April to 5.9% in May.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD managed to settle below the support at 1.2130 and is testing the support at the 50 EMA at 1.2110. If this test is successful, EUR/USD will move towards the support at 1.2080.

A move below this level will open the way to the test of the support at 1.2060. In case EUR/USD declines below 1.2060, it will head towards the next support level which is located at 1.2040.

On the upside, the previous support level at 1.2130 will serve as the first resistance level for EUR/USD. If EUR/USD get above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.2155. A successful test of this level will push EUR/USD towards the resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.2165.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir Zernovauthor

Vladimir is an independent trader and analyst with over 10 years of experience in the financial markets. He is a specialist in stocks, futures, Forex, indices, and commodities areas using long-term positional trading and swing trading.