EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – Bulls Awaiting Q1 GDP Figures

The Euro pair lost its consistent consolidation phase on May 14. Today morning the EUR/USD pair was moving around its weekly lows near 1.1200/10 levels.

In the early hours, China published economic lower-than-expected April YoY data. The Chinese Retail Sales recorded 1.4% below the 8.6% estimates while Industrial data reported 1.1% down. These disappointing figures provided increased volatility of CNY with currency majors and it ultimately had a slight impact on the Fiber. The pair appeared to shift 5 pips down following the Chinese results.

Investors set in particular focus onto the upcoming E.U. elections which is hardly seven days ahead from today. Theresa May struggles to get the Withdrawal Agreement passed to complete the EU-UK divorce before the polls. However, there remains slow progress on the Brexit front.

On the other side, the US Dollar Index seems to recover from the previous losses incurred over Chinese tariff retaliation. The Greenback was hovering near 97.50 levels since opening.

This day would be a “Super Wednesday” for the EUR/USD pair as many significant events have lined up for the day. Traders must carefully follow the events especially the German and Eurozone GDP figures. The pair might show some spectacular performances during the day on the backdrop of the events.

EUR/USD Influencing Events

Today, there is a massive flow of Euro specific calendar events.  The most important event is the European Q1 GDP which will get released at around 09:00 GMT. The consensus estimates the QoQ GDP to appear in-line to the previous 1.4 percent. Also, the YoY GDP is anticipated to remain in-line with the earlier data near 1.2 percent. At around 06:00 GMT, the German Q1 GDP report will get published, and the market analysts hope a high reading this time. Laterwards, the France CPI and the Italian Industrial Sales & Orders will get broadcasted in the Asian session. The market expects that this Italian manufacturing data might go neutral affecting the pair.

On the U.S. side, the U.S. Census Bureau will bring out the Retails Sales Control Group report. The analysts are on the view that this Sales report may appear at 0.6 percent low today. They also hope that these bearish U.S. Retail index may get strongly impact the EUR/USD pair

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was down above all significant SMAs and indicated a bearish outlook. Meantime, the 50-days SMA stood above the 100-days and 200-days Simple Moving Averages (SMA), referring near term bull call. The pair remained in the lower vicinity of the Bollinger Bands (BB), indicating a bearish stance. The RSI was hovering near 42 levels signaling a moderate buying.